اندازه محله مدار پایین زمین اکنون به‌طوررسمی دو برابر شده است. ۳۱ اکتبر (حدود ۱۰ روز پیش)، چین آخرین قطعه از ایستگاه فضایی جدید تیان‌گونگ خود را نیز به فضا پرتاب کرد و بدین‌ترتیب ساخت این پروژه بزرگ را به‌پایان رساند.
ماژول آزمایشگاهی ۱۸ متری با نام منگ‌تیان (Mengtian به‌معنای «رؤیای بهشت») انجام طیف وسیعی از آزمایش‌های علمی را امکان‌پذیر می‌کند و اکنون این فرصت را برای ایستگاه تیان‌گونگ فراهم می‌سازد که بتواند حداکثر شش نفر را در آنِ واحد در خود جای دهد. گفتنی است که ایستگاه فضایی چینی درحالحاضر میزبان فرمانده چن دونگ و دو فضانورد دیگر است.
اتفاق اخیر دستاوردی چشمگیر برای برنامه فضایی به‌سرعت رو‌به‌پیشرفت چین محسوب می‌شود. چینی‌ها درصدد ساخت پایگاه روی ماه، استقرار ماه‌نورد، ارسال سطح‌نشین‌ها و مدارگردهای جدید به مریخ هستند. تکمیل ایستگاه تیان‌گونگ از جنبه‌ای دیگر هم اهمیت دارد: این سکونتگاه مداری نخستین همسایه بلندمدت ایستگاه فضایی بین‌المللی (ISS) از زمان خارج‌شدن ایستگاه میر روسیه در سال ۲۰۰۱ به‌شمار می‌آید.
چین بین سال‌های ۲۰۱۱ تا ۲۰۱۹، دو نمونه آزمایشی تیان‌گونگ را به فضا ارسال کرد؛ اما هیچ‌کدام از آن‌ها دیگر در مدار زمین قرار ندارند. فابیو ترونچتی، استاد حقوق فضایی در دانشگاه بی‌هانگ در پکن، می‌گوید استقرار پایدار ایستگاه فضایی برای چین مهم است؛ زیرا ازآنجاکه تا پایان عمر ایستگاه فضایی بین‌المللی دیگر فاصله چندانی نداریم، ممکن است روزی برسد که فقط یک سکونتگاه فضایی، آن هم ایستگاه فضایی چین در مدار زمین وجود داشته باشد.
هدف برنامه فضایی چین این است که تیان‌گونگ را بتوانند برای ۱۰ تا ۱۵ سال آتی در فضا نگه دارد. چینی‌ها امکان‌هایی را برای افزایش طول عمر این ایستگاه و تداوم حضورش در فضا در نظر گرفته‌اند. ایستگاه فضایی بین‌المللی که اندازه‌ای بسیار بزرگ‌تر دارد و ایالات متحده، آژانس فضایی اروپا، روسیه و سایر همکاران آن را اداره می‌کند، ممکن است تا سال ۲۰۳۰ بازنشسته شود. این واپسین تاریخی است که دولت بایدن پس از تمدید مأموریت ایستگاه در سال گذشته به آن داده است.
افزون‌براین، اوایل سال جاری میلادی و با آغاز جنگ، روسیه تهدید کرد که تا سال ۲۰۲۴ به‌دلیل تنش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی ادامه‌دار که پس از تهاجم این کشور به اوکراین رخ داده، از مشارکت در ایستگاه خارج خواهد شد؛ اما تحلیلگران فضایی درحالحاضر انتظار دارند که روسیه نیز مانند سایر همکاران تا سال ۲۰۳۰ به حمایت خود از فعالیت ISS ادامه دهد.
در طول تاریخ بشر، فعالیت‌های مرتبط با اکتشافات فضایی و پروازهای فضایی سرنشین‌دار زیر سلطه ایالات متحده و متحدانش (ازجمله اروپا و کانادا و ژاپن) و روسیه بوده است. در سال‌های اخیر، حضور روسیه در فضا به‌مرور کم‌رنگ شده است؛ اما چین اکنون با اتکا به خود و پیشرفتش درمقایسهبا طرح‌های پیشین، به‌سرعت موفق به انجام کاری شده است که روسیه و ایالات متحده در چند دهه پیش انجام داده بودند.
اگرچه آماده‌سازی ایستگاه تیان‌گونگ (از جمله راه اندازی اولین نسخه از دو نمونه آزمایشی) در سال ۲۰۱۱ آغاز شد، ساخت تیان‌گونگ فقط ۱/۵ سال به‌طول انجامید. ماژول اصلی به‌نام تیان‌هه در آوریل ۲۰۲۱ (بهار ۱۴۰۰) پرتاب شد و اولین فضانوردان هم در ژوئن همان سال (اوایل تابستان ۱۴۰۰) به آن وارد شدند. ماژول بعدی در ژوئیه ۲۰۲۲ (اوایل مرداد) ارسال شد و به‌دنبال آن، آخرین ماژول از مجموعه ماژول‌های برنامه‌ریزی‌شده نیز هفته قبل به فضا رفت.
ایستگاه Tشکل با دو ماژول آزمایشگاهی متصل به هسته، ازنظر اندازه شبیه به ایستگاه میر است. میر ایستگاه فضایی نام‌آشنا و پیش‌گامانه‌ای بود که در دهه‌های ۱۹۸۰ و ۹۰ فعالیت می‌کرد. به‌گفته یان آزبورگ، مهندس هوافضا در شرکت رند، اگرچه تیان‌گونگ کوچک‌تر از ایستگاه فضایی بین‌المللی است، در آن برخی ویژگی‌های رفاهی برای سرنشینان وجود دارد که سکونت‌پذیری و درنتیجه، بهره‌وری فضانوردان را بهبود می‌بخشد؛ ازجمله به‌هم‌ریختگی کمتر، تجهیزات بی‌سیم بیشتر به‌جای کابل‌کشی سنتی و مایکروویو در فضا.
آزبورگ تصریح می‌کند که ممکن است برنامه فضایی چین در آینده تلسکوپ رباتیکی را نیز به این ایستگاه متصل کند؛ اگرچه خود ایستگاه احتمالاً بزرگ‌تر نخواهد شد. شکل Tمانند ایستگاه تیان‌گونگ ممکن است گزینه‌های پیش رو برای گسترش یا افزایش حجم کلی ایستگاه را محدود کند.
همچنین، برخی عوامل مانند نیاز به مدیریت مصرف برق و حذف گرمای هدررفته شاید انجام چنین کاری را محدود کنند. درمقابل ISS ساختار خرپایی و آرایه‌های خورشیدی عظیم دارد و در طول سال‌ها، دستخوش توسعه‌های حجمی متعددی شده است؛ هرچند مونتاژ تمام این تجهیزات سال‌ها زمان برد و مستلزم پرتاب‌های متعدد بود.
ایستگاه چین همانند ایستگاه فضایی بین‌المللی فرصت‌هایی برای مشارکت ارائه می‌دهد. سایر کشورها می‌توانند از این طریق آزمایش‌هایشان و شاید بعدتر فضانوردانشان را به تیان‌گونگ ارسال کنند. درحالحاضر، تیان‌گونگ میزبان آزمایشی متعلق به عربستان‌سعودی است و پژوهشگران مؤسسه‌های اروپایی و سایر کشورها آزمایش‌هایی درباره طیف گسترده‌ای از موضوعات، از انفجار پرتوهای گاما گرفته تا پزشکی فضایی و ساعت‌های اتمی، پیشنهاد کرده‌اند.
ناگفته نماند شرکای تجاری چین نیز ممکن است با پرتاب مأموریت‌های ترابری در برنامه تیان‌گونگ مشارکت کنند. ماریسا هرون، محقق سیاست فضایی در رند و همکار آزبورگ می‌گوید:
برخلاف ایستگاه فضایی بین‌المللی که پیوسته به همکاری و حمایت شرکای خود وابسته است، چین اولویت‌های متفاوتی برای تیان‌گونگ دارد. تمرکز چینی‌ها احتمالاً نشان‌دادن رهبری چین و بی‌نیازیشان از وابستگی به آژانس‌ها و شرکت‌های فضایی دیگر کشورها خواهد بود.
احتمالاً خودتان نیز حدس زده باشید که ناسا یکی از این شرکا نخواهد بود. آژانس فضایی آمریکا براساس قانونی به نام متمم وولف که در سال ۲۰۱۱ در کنگره تصویب شد، از همکاری با چین در پروژه‌هایی فضایی منع شده است. متمم یادشده مراکز فضایی امریکایی را به‌دلیل نگرانی‌های موجود درباره امنیت ملی، از همکاری با شرکت‌ها و آژانس‌های چینی باز می‌دارد.
این رویکرد ایالات متحده تغییر موضع مهمی درمقایسهبا با سابقه‌های همکاری موجود میان دو اَبَرقدرت دنیا در روزگار جنگ سرد است؛ سالیانی که ناسا و همتایانشان در شوروی با وجود اختلافات سیاسی، گاهی نیز باهم روی پروژه‌های فضایی کار می‌کردند.
ناسا برای جایگزینی ایستگاه فضایی بین‌المللی، در حال سرمایه‌گذاری روی سه طرح احتمالی برای ایستگاه‌های فضایی تجاری است که در اواخر دهه ۲۰۲۰ پرتاب خواهند شد.
درحالحاضر، شرکت خصوصی آکسیوم اسپیس مشغول ساخت ماژولی جدید برای ISS است. ناسا و شرکایش نیز می‌خواهند ایستگاه فضایی قمری‌ای به نام Gateway را تا اواخر این دهه به‌عنوان بخشی از برنامه آرتمیس مونتاژ کنند.
موشک لانگ مارچ ۵بی، حامل ماژول آزمایشگاه فضایی منگ‌تیان، از سایت پرتاب فضاپیمای ونچانگ در استان هاینان در جنوب چین ارسال شد
انتظار نمی‌رود که روسیه نقش مهمی در مأموریت‌های تیان‌گونگ ایفا کند. رئیس روسکاسموس (آژانس فضایی روسیه) اوایل سال جاری اعلام کرد ماژول‌هایی برای ایستگاه جدید خودشان در اوایل سال ۲۰۲۸ پرتاب خواهد کرد؛ اگرچه در عمل بعید است این اتفاق بیفتد.
تکمیل تیان‌گونگ نشان می‌دهد که دیگر نمی‌توان از چین صرفاً به‌عنوان بازیگری در حال پیشرفت در عرصه فضا یاد کرد. آن‌ها اکنون یکی از چند قدرت مطرح در این عرصه محسوب می‌شوند؛ البته چنین جایگاهی طبعا مسائلی نیز به‌دنبال خواهد داشت. چینی‌ها هم مانند دیگر قدرت‌ها، اکنون باید با مشکلی اساسی رو‌به‌رو شوند و فکری به حال آن کنند: مدیریت تکه‌های جداشده موشک‌های ارسال‌شده به فضا.
اکثر کشورها یا از موشک‌های چندبارمصرف بهره می‌برند یا سعی می‌کنند بدنه موشک‌های خود را با ذخیره مقداری سوخت به‌نحوی دفع کنند که امکان نزول کنترل‌شده آن در جوّ زمین فراهم باشد. چنین اقداماتی تضمین می‌کند که بقایای موشک‌ها در مدار پایین زمین قرار نمی‌گیرند و ماهواره‌ها و ایستگاه‌های فضایی را تهدید نمی‌کنند و به‌طور‌خطرناک روی زمین سقوط نمی‌کنند.
بااین‌حال، تمام بوسترهای موشک لانگ مارچ که آژانس فضایی چین برای نصب ماژول‌های ایستگاه تیان‌گونگ از آن‌ها استفاده کرد، بهگونهای خارج از کنترل سقوط کردند. یکی از آن‌ها در اقیانوس هند در نزدیکی مالدیو سقوط کرد.
همچنین موشکی که ماژول آزمایشگاه ون‌تیان را در ماه ژوئیه با خود به فضا برده بود، دو هفته بعد با تبدیل‌شدن به مجموعه‌ای از زباله‌های فضایی سرگردان، درنهایت در مالزی و اندونزی به زمین رسید و بقایای موشک پرتاب اخیر نیز در اقیانوس آرام افتاد.
برایان ویدن، مدیر برنامه‌ریزی در بنیاد جهان امن، اندیشکده غیرحزبی مستقر در برومفیلد کلرادو، می‌گوید چین با پرتاب هفته گذشته، انتخاب کرد که توانایی پایین‌آوردن بوستر به روش کنترل‌شده را نداشته باشد؛ کاری که تقریباً همه کشورهای پیشرفته‌تر فضایی در این مرحله انجام می‌دهند.
ویدن اشاره می‌کند که هرچند هیچ قانونی در عرصه بین‌المللی وجود ندارد که کشورها را ملزم به رفتار مسئولانه در قبال زباله‌های فضایی کند، چین عضو پیمان پذیرش مسئولیت فعالیت‌های فضایی سازمان ملل است. طبق این پیمان، اگر موشک‌های چین باعث آسیب یا خسارت در هر نقطه از زمین شوند، این کشور مسئول خواهد بود.
به‌باور دیوید بورباخ، کارشناس امور امنیت ملی در کالج جنگ نیروی دریایی در نیوپورت رود آیلند، درحالی‌که چین مانند ایالات متحده و روسیه توانایی‌های نظامی فضایی فراوانی دارد، ایستگاه فضایی تیان‌گونگ چیزی به آن‌ها اضافه نمی‌کند. ایستگاه چین نیز مشابه ISS و میر، هدف نظامی ندارد و اساساً برای تسهیل تحقیقات علمی طراحی شده است.
ایستگاه چینی‌ها یک بازوی رباتیک دارد و روی کاغذ، می‌تواند یک ماهواره آمریکایی را بگیرد. باوجوداین، بورباخ یادآوری می‌کند که اگر کسی واقعاً بخواهد چنین کاری را بهگونهای درست و عملگرایانه انجام دهد، شاید بهتر باشد ماهواره‌ای کوچک و پنهان‌کار بسازد؛ زیرا چنین رویکردی بسیار هوشمندانه‌تر از تلاش برای حرکت‌دادن ایستگاه فضایی غول‌پیکرتان به‌منظور شکار ماهواره کوچک کشور رقیب خواهد بود. از دیدگاه آزبورگ، تکمیل تیان‌گونگ پیامدهای ژئوپلیتیک دیگری برای ایالات متحده دارد. او می‌گوید: دیگر نمی‌توانیم این موضوع را بدیهی بپنداریم که تنها بازیگر اصلی در فضا خودمان هستیم. این برای ما، برای ایالات متحده و متحدانش، مانند تلنگری است تا توپ را رها نکنیم.
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