اندیشکده شورای آتلانتیک آمریکا در مطلبی درباره صادرات نفت ایران به چین نوشته است: حتی با کاهش گاه و بیگاه واردات نفت، پکن شاهرگ نجات تهران برای دور زدن تحریم‌های نفتی برای سال‌ها بوده است.
در حالی که تقریباً همه کشورها به کاهش وابستگی به تأمین انرژی از ایران روی آورده‌اند، چین منبع پایدار تأمین پول نقد برای ایران بوده است. این اتفاق در زمانی رخ داده که تولید نفت ایران در سال 2020 به نصف یعنی فقط 2 میلیون بشکه در روز کاهش یافت. اکنون، رابطه نفتی بین ایران و چین قوی‌تر از همیشه است، به‌ویژه از آنجایی که چین برای رسیدن به ایالات متحده از نظر اقتصادی بیش از حد تلاش می‌کند.
در ژانویه، اندونزی دو نفت‌کش بزرگ را که در حال انتقال نفت بودند، توقیف کرد. یکی از شناورها، MT Horse، دارای پرچم ایران بود و توسط اتباع ایرانی هدایت می‌شد. دیگری، MT Freya، پانامایی بود که خدمه آن چینی بودند و توسط یک شرکت چینی اداره می‌شد. هدف از استفاده از نیروی دریایی سایر کشورها برای پنهان کردن منشأ نفت بود. چین نفت ایران را از طریق مستقیم، انتقال کشتی و با مخلوط کردن نفت خام از ایران و سایر منابع وارد می‌کند.
این ماجرا نشان داد که نفت خام هاماکا از ونزوئلا با مواد افزودنی شیمیایی در مالزی مخلوط شده و با نام جعلی “Singma Blend” در سنگاپور و مالزی و با اسناد جعلی معامله می‌شود.
تهران و کاراکاس که با تحریم‌های مشابه اعمال شده توسط ایالات متحده روبرو هستند، روابط دوستانه‌تری پیدا کرده‌اند. برخی از محموله‌های نفت خام ایران همان مسیر نفت خام هاماکا را که به مالزی و سپس به چین راه می‌یابد، دنبال می‌کند. مالزی دریافت‌کننده حدود 60 هزار بشکه در روز از ایران برای پنج ماه اول سال 2020 بود، با این که ماهاتیر محمد که تا فوریه گذشته نخست‌وزیر مالزی بود، گفت که کشورش به دلیل تحریم‌ها نمی‌تواند با ایران تجارت کند.
پیوند تهران و کاراکاس گسترده‌تر هم شده است. با فروپاشی صنعت پالایش نفت ونزوئلا، ایران در ماه مه سال 2020 یک ناوگان شامل 5 نفت‌کش حامل حدود 60 میلیون گالن بنزین در ازای دریافت طلا به ونزوئلا ارسال کرد. این محموله‌ها ادامه یافت و حجم ناوگان ایران تا دسامبر سال 2020 دو برابر شد. این نفت‌کش‌ها پس از تخلیه بنزین، نفت خام ونزوئلا را به مقصد چین بارگیری می‌کردند.
چین بیش از هر زمان دیگری به نفت نیاز دارد. شی جین پینگ، رهبر حزب کمونیست چین در سخنرانی پایان سال 2020 خود گفت: ما بر تأثیر همه‌گیری غلبه کردیم و در کنترل بیماری و همچنین توسعه اجتماعی و اقتصادی به موفقیت بزرگی دست یافتیم.
مبارزه چین علیه آنچه شی چین پینگ «ویروس شیطان» خواند، آن را به تنها اقتصادی بزرگ تبدیل کرد که رشد اقتصادی مثبت را در سال 2020 ثبت کرده است. واردات نفت چین در سال گذشته در مقایسه با سال 2019، 7.3 درصد افزایش داشت.
در دسامبر سال 2020، چین 9.06 میلیون بشکه در روز نفت وارد کرد که نسبت به 11.04 میلیون بشکه در روز در نوامبر کاهش نشان می‌دهد، اما فقط به این دلیل که پالایشگاه‌ها سهمیه واردات خود را تا پایان سال تمام کرده بودند. چین هنوز تشنه نفت است. سهمیه تازه واردات نفت در اوایل سال 2021 نسبت به سال گذشته 18 درصد بیشتر شده است.
این مسئله با قول امیرحسین زمانی‌نیا معاون وزیر نفت ایران هم‌زمان شده که گفته ایران تولید نفت خود را تا ماه مارس به سطح قبل از تحریم می‌رساند تا به تولید 3.9 تا 4 میلیون بشکه در روز برسد. این تصمیم احتمالاً بر اساس انتظاراتی است که از جو بایدن رئیس‌جمهور آمریکا برای بازگشت به برجام وجود دارد.
تا زمانی که یوآن‌های نفتی چین ابزاری برای دور زدن تحریم‌های ایالات متحده باشد، ایران بارگیری نفت‌کش‌ها را با نفت خام و ارسال آنها به سمت شرق آسیا ادامه خواهد داد. پالایشگاه‌های چینی و کارخانجات پتروشیمی خریداران نفت ایران هستند.
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