چرا زغال‌سنگ برای اقتصاد چین مهم است؟

چین بزرگترین تولیدکننده و مصرف‌کننده زغال‌سنگ در جهان است که از این سوخت فسیلی برای گرمایش، پخت‌وپز، تولید برق و تولید فولاد استفاده می‌کند.

چین همچنین بزرگترین منتشرکننده گازهای گلخانه‌ای در جهان است، اما متعهد شده است که طی چهار دهه آینده از سوخت‌های فسیلی دور شود.

چین 3.84 میلیارد تن زغال‌سنگ در سال 2020 تولید کرد که بالاترین میزان از سال 2015 بود.

زغال‌سنگ حرارتی به طور گسترده‌ای برای تولید برق مورد استفاده قرار می‌گیرد به طوری که 57.7 درصد از کل انرژی مصرفی چین را در سال 2019 تشکیل می‌داد که 10.8 واحد درصد کاهش نسبت به سال 2012 داشت؛ اما سهم زغال‌سنگ در سبد سوخت مصرفی چین هنوز هم بسیار بالاتر از منابع انرژی پاک‌تر از جمله گاز طبیعی، برق، هسته‌ای، خورشیدی و بادی است.

همچنین از زغال‌سنگ در خانواده‌های فقیرنشین در بسیاری از مناطق چین برای گرم کردن و پخت‌وپز استفاده می‌شود. از سوی دیگر، زغال‌سنگ کک‌شو نیز یکی از عناصر اصلی در تولید فولاد است.

چین 3.84 میلیارد تن زغال‌سنگ در سال 2020 تولید کرد که بالاترین میزان تولید از سال 2015 بود و رشد 90 میلیون تنی نسبت به سال 2019 داشت. با این حال، میزان تولید زغال‌سنگ در سال گذشته کمتر از رکورد 3.97 میلیارد تنی در سال 2013 بود.

این کشور در سال گذشته همچنین 304 میلیون تن زغال‌سنگ وارد کرد که نسبت به سال 2019 حدود 4 میلیون تن افزایش داشته است.

چین، بزرگ‌ترین مصرف‌کننده انرژی و انتشاردهنده گازهای گلخانه‌ای در جهان، متعهد شده است که طی چهار دهه آینده از سوخت‌های فسیلی فاصله بگیرد، اما دستیابی به این هدف با توجه به امنیت انرژی و رشد اقتصادی همچنان از نگرانی‌های اصلی پکن است.

چین می‌تواند بیشتر زغال‌سنگ مورد نیاز خود را تولید کند. با این حال، این کشور زغال‌سنگ وارد می‌کند تا تامین داخلی را تکمیل و برای تولید فولاد از زغال‌سنگ کک‌شوی با کیفیت بالاتر استفاده کند.

بر اساس گزارش موسسه Fastmarkets، در سال 2019، چین حدود 3.7 میلیارد تن زغال‌سنگ تولید و 300 میلیون تن وارد کرد.

در سال 2019، حدود 57 درصد واردات زغال‌سنگ حرارتی چین و 40 درصد زغال‌سنگ کک‌شوی آن از استرالیا صورت گرفته است.

در سال 2020، واردات زغال‌سنگ حرارتی چین از استرالیا تقریباً در همان سطح سال 2019 بود، اما به گفته تحلیلگران، واردات زغال‌سنگ کک‌شو احتمالاً به 50 درصد سال 2019 رسیده است.

در ماه دسامبر، آفریقای جنوبی برای اولین بار از سال 2014 زغال‌سنگ حرارتی به چین صادر کرد که در راستای هدف چین برای متنوع کردن منابع تامین زغال‌سنگ بود.

یک ماه قبل، نیز خریداران چینی از کلمبیا زغال‌سنگ خریداری کردند در حالی که به دلیل زمان حمل‌ونقل طولانی در مقایسه با تأمین‌کنندگان منطقه‌ای مانند استرالیا و اندونزی، هرگز فروش عمده‌ای به چین نداشته است.

از نظر تاریخی، زغال‌سنگ آفریقای جنوبی به چین اجازه ورود داده نمی‌شود زیرا حاوی عناصر کمیاب محدود مانند فلورین است، در حالی که زغال‌سنگ کلمبیا معمولاً هنگام افزایش قیمت‌های منطقه به عنوان گزینه پشتیبان در نظر گرفته می‌شود.

اینکه چین در ماه‌های اخیر زغال‌سنگ حرارتی هر دو کشور را پذیرفته است، نشان می‌دهد که این کشور تمایل به تجارت با یکی از بزرگترین تأمین‌کنندگان زغال‌سنگ خود ندارد یعنی استرالیا.

علاوه بر آفریقای جنوبی و کلمبیا، چین می‌تواند واردات زغال‌سنگ حرارتی از اندونزی، بزرگ‌ترین صادرکننده سوخت در جهان را افزایش دهد. در ماه نوامبر، چین اقدام به انعقاد قرارداد با بزرگترین اقتصاد جنوب شرقی آسیا برای خرید 1.46 میلیارد دلار زغال‌سنگ حرارتی بیشتر طی سه سال آینده کرد.

به گفته تحلیلگران، چین همچنین توانایی افزایش تولید داخلی را دارد. بیشتر زغال‌سنگ خام استخراج‌شده در چین برای تولید برق استفاده می‌شود، در حالی که حدود 20 درصد برای ایجاد زغال کک‌سازی برای کارخانه‌های تولید فولاد استفاده می‌شود.

اندونزی، استرالیا و روسیه سه تامین کننده بزرگ زغال‌سنگ حرارتی هستند که از طریق کشتی به چین منتقل می‌شوند، در حالی که استرالیا و مغولستان بر صادرات زغال‌سنگ کک‌شو که در کوره‌های فولادی استفاده می‌شود، تمرکز دارند.

در این میان بدتر شدن روابط دوجانبه چین و استرالیا سبب شد چین به طور غیررسمی واردات زغال‌سنگ از استرالیا را ممنوع کند. در ماه اکتبر و دوباره در ماه نوامبر، ده‌ها کشتی حامل زغال‌سنگ استرالیا برای تخلیه محموله‌های خود در سواحل چین معطل ماندند.

به گفته تحلیلگران، در ماه نوامبر حداقل چهار کارخانه بزرگ تولید فولاد چینی با اجرایی شدن ممنوعیت حمل‌ونقل، سفارشات زغال‌سنگ کک‌شو از استرالیا را به کشورهای دیگر منتقل کردند.

دولت استرالیا از حدس و گمان اینکه آیا این ممنوعیت یک تسویه حساب تازه در درگیری دیپلماتیک بین دو کشور است، خودداری کرد، اما برخی از تحلیلگران گفتند که احتمالاً پکن انگیزه سیاسی دارد.

چین، بزرگ‌ترین مصرف‌کننده انرژی و انتشاردهنده گازهای گلخانه‌ای در جهان، متعهد شده است که طی چهار دهه آینده از سوخت‌های فسیلی فاصله بگیرد، اما دستیابی به این هدف با توجه به امنیت انرژی و رشد اقتصادی همچنان از نگرانی‌های اصلی پکن است.

در ماه سپتامبر، شی جین پینگ رئیس‌جمهور با اعلام اینکه چین قصد دارد تا سال 2060 عاری از کربن باشد، جهان را متعجب کرد.

این تعهد به سرمایه‌گذاری کلانی در انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، اتومبیل‌های برقی و فناوری‌هایی مانند جذب و ذخیره کربن نیاز دارد. چین برای رسیدن به این هدف نیاز به 130 تریلیون یوان (19.8 تریلیون دلار آمریکا) سرمایه‌گذاری خواهد داشت.

همچنین باید سهم زغال‌سنگ در سبد مصرفی انرژی چین از 57.7 درصد در سال 2019 به کمتر از 5 درصد کاهش یابد و منابع انرژی جدید به بیش از 85 درصد برسد. در حال حاضر، حدود 15 درصد از انرژی مصرفی چین از سوخت‌های غیرفسیلی از جمله انرژی هسته‌ای تأمین می‌شود.

اگرچه بسیاری از ناظران صنعت می‌گویند که در بلندمدت چین می‌تواند از زغال‌سنگ حرارتی استرالیا که برای تولید برق استفاده می‌شود، دور شود، اما این کشور برای کاهش واردات زغال‌سنگ کک‌شو که برای ساخت فولاد استفاده می‌شود، مشکل بیشتری خواهد داشت.

با این حال، تحلیلگران نسبت به انتظارات خیلی خوش‌بینانه از کاهش سریع انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای چین هشدار دادند.

برخی کارشناسان هم می‌گویند برای چین دشوار است که استرالیا را به طور کامل از ترکیب تأمین‌کنندگان زغال‌سنگ خود حذف کند، زیرا تامین برق در تابستان و زمستان دچار مشکل می‌شود.

سهمیه‌بندی برق در بسیاری از مناطق سردسیر شمال چین در زمستان امسال نشان داده است که تولید داخلی در حال حاضر بسیار کمتر از نیاز زمستان است.

انجمن ملی زغال‌سنگ چین در آخرین پیش‌نویس استراتژی توسعه خود، پیشنهاد کرد که کل مصرف سالانه زغال‌سنگ کشور را تا سال 2025 به 4.2 میلیارد تن در سال محدود کند و تعداد معادن داخلی زغال‌سنگ را کاهش دهد.

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