رقابت چین و آمریکا در حوزه فناوری

امروزه قدرت ژئوپلتیک به شکل فزاینده‌ای به قدرت فناوری گره خورده است. در ادامه، رقابت چین و آمریکا در برخی حوزه‌های فناوری بررسی شده است.

شبکه 5G

«ویلیام بار» دادستان کل آمریکا ماه فوریه تلویحاً به شکست آمریکا در حوزه 5G اذعان کرد. وی گفت واشینگتن و متحدانش باید از رقبای هوآوی یعنی نوکیا و اریکسون سرمایه‌گذاری کنند.

هر دوی این کمپانی‌ها در اروپا هستند و این یعنی آمریکا هیچ بازیگر قدرتمندی برای رقابت با هوآوی، بزرگ‌ترین تولیدکننده تجهیزات مخابراتی دنیا، ندارد.

اگرچه کمپانی‌های آمریکایی «لوسنت» و «موتورولا» زمانی در این رقابت حرفی برای گفتن داشتند، اما هر دو مقابل فناوری پیشرفته و قیمت‌های پایین هوآوی به زانو درآمدند.

حتی آن دسته از کمپانی‌های آمریکایی هم که هنوز دستی بر آتش 5G دارند به قطعات سخت‌افزاری‌ای وابسته هستند که بخش عمده‌ای از آن‌ها را خود هوآوی تولید می‌کند.

بنابراین برتری در 5G با چین است.

هوش مصنوعی

چین سه سال پیش اعلام کرد قصد دارد تا سال 2030 به جایگاه نخست دنیا در حوزه هوش مصنوعی برسد، و پیش‌بینی کرد ارزش بازار این فناوری تنها در داخل چین تا این سال به 150 میلیارد دلار برسد.

غول‌های چینی مانند علی‌بابا و بَیدو میلیاردها دلار صرف تحقیق و توسعه هوش مصنوعی چه در خود چین و چه حتی در آمریکا کرده‌اند.

به علاوه، جمعیت میلیاردی چین و قوانین ساده‌تر حریم خصوصی در این کشور نیز اقیانوسی از داده‌های مختلف را در اختیار کمپانی‌ها قرار داده و آموزش دادن به هوش مصنوعی را ساده‌تر کرده است.

اگرچه چین در برخی حوزه‌های مهم هوش مصنوعی مانند تشخیص چهره از آمریکا پیش است، اما در همه حوزه‌ها این‌گونه نیست.

غول‌های آمریکایی مانند مایکروسافت و گوگل در هوش عمومی مصنوعی، یعنی آموزش تفکر انسان‌مانند به ماشین، پیش هستند.

برتری در هوش مصنوعی متعلق به آمریکاست، اما فاصله میان دو کشور ناچیز است.

رایانش کوانتومی

رایانه‌های کوانتومی می‌توانند اطلاعات را با سرعتی بسیار بیش‌تر از حتی ابَررایانه‌ها پردازش کنند، و در این در حالی است که هنوز تنها از اندکی از ظرفیت بالقوه فناوری رایانش کوانتومی استفاده می‌کنند و با رسیدن به ظرفیت حداکثری این فناوری یک دهه یا بیش‌تر فاصله دارند.

آمریکا در تولید رایانه‌های کوانتومی، با فاصله، پیشتاز است؛ گوگل سال گذشته مدعی شد ساخت رایانه‌ای کوانتومی با قدرت 54 کیوبیت و دستیابی به «برتری کوانتومی» (حل معادلات غیرممکن یا تقریباً غیرممکن) شد، هرچند IBM، دیگر کمپانی آمریکایی، این ادعا را به چالش کشید.

کمپانی‌های چینی مانند علی‌بابا و بَیدو نیز رایانه‌های کوانتومی ساخته‌اند، اما این رایانه‌ها سال‌ها از همتایان آمریکایی خود عقب‌ترند.

با این حال، چین در کاربرد رایانه‌های کوانتومی برای برقراری ارتباط سریع‌تر، پیشتاز است.

بنابراین آمریکا در رایانش کوانتومی و چین در ارتباطات کوانتومی پیشتازند.

نیمه‌رساناها

چین طی دهه‌های گذشته ده‌ها میلیارد دلار برای ورود به بازار تولید نیمه‌رساناهایی خرج کرده که برای ساخت رایانه‌ها و گوشی‌های همراه سریع‌تر و تسلیحات پیشرفته‌تر حیاتی هستند.

این کشور طی سال‌های گذشته حدود 47/5 درصد از نیمه‌رساناهای موردنیاز خود را از آمریکا وارد کرده و تولیدکنندگان چینی حتی در بازار داخلی هم موفق نبوده‌اند.

اگرچه همسایه‌های چین مانند کره‌جنوبی و تایوان جایگاه‌های نخست دنیا را در تولید نیمه‌رسانا دارند، اما پکن هنوز نتوانسته پا جای پای آن‌ها بگذارد.

البته چین طی سال‌های اخیر در تولید نیمه‌رسانا پیشرفت کرده و مثلاً فبلت‌های جدید هوآوی بدون استفاده از قطعات آمریکایی ساخته می‌شوند.

اگرچه گفته می‌شود پکن در این حوزه 5 تا 7 سال از رقبایش عقب‌تر است، اما کارشناسان معتقدند سرمایه‌گذاری‌های هنگفت چین در این‌باره بالأخره دیر یا زود جواب خواهند داد.

برتری در این حوزه متعلق به آمریکاست.

خودروهای خودران

کمپانی‌های آمریکایی مانند «ویمو»ی گوگل و «کروزِ» جنرال‌موتورز در حوزه‌های سخت‌افزاری (سنسور، دوربین و رادارهای لازم برای تشخیص موانع محیطی) از رقبای چینی خود جلوتر هستند.

همچنین برتری آمریکا در حوزه نیمه‌رساناها به این کمپانی‌ها امکان ساخت تراشه‌های قدرتمند به عنوان مغز خودروهای خودران را داده است.

در طرف مقابل، برتری چین در 5G برای آن‌ها امکان برقراری ارتباط بهتر و سریع‌تر میان خودروهای خودران و اجزای «شبکه ترافیکی» را فراهم کرده است.

اگرچه چین هنوز در این حوزه از آمریکا عقب است، اما پیش‌بینی می‌شود بزرگ‌ترین بازار خودروی جهان، به لطف کمپانی‌هایی مانند بَیدو، دی‌دی چاکسینگ و Pony.ai در بلندمدت از آمریکا سبقت بگیرد.

جمعیت چین نه تنها داده‌های بیش‌تری در اختیار کمپانی‌های این کشور قرار می‌دهند که به رشد سریع‌تر خودروهای خودران منجر می‌شود، بلکه چینی‌ها بیش‌تر از آمریکایی‌ها به استفاده از این خودروهای علاقه نشان داده‌اند.

آمریکا در این حوزه پیشتاز است، اما موقتاً.

9 دیدگاه دربارهٔ «رقابت چین و آمریکا در حوزه فناوری;

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